Wow - great connection. I really appreciate how you did the research to back up your claim that "state championship" => Rose Bowl.
I think the 2006 season makes for an interesting case study. Cal, UCLA, and USC were all 2/3 in the "California series". So what criteria does one use for tie breakers? If we use head-to-head matchups, then we still end up with a tie. Cal, UCLA, and USC's one losses were to USC, Cal, and UCLA, respectively. Now consider conference standings. USC and Cal were tied at 7-2, still resulting in a tie. How about total standings? USC beats us out with an 11-2 record versus our 10-3 record, which aligns with their Rose Bowl berth that year.
Anyways, I think an interesting follow-up question to this post is how to determine tie-breakers for the "state championship". Is it possible to come up with a reasonable set of tie-breaker rules for the 2006 season which result in Cal winning state? What does everyone else think?
Ragnarok
· 1 year ago
Despite last year's result, Cal should continue to dominate Stanford in the near future, as its roster just isn't as talented as Cal's. UCLA looks to get better with Neuheisel and Chow, but their recent struggles in keeping QBs healthy suggests that this may not be their year.
Like most years, I think this season's chances will come down to whether we can beat USC, and this season, I don't like those odds. Could it happen? Sure. But I wouldn't bet on Cal winning more than 8 games this year.
Tony
· 1 year ago
a2Bear06, you raise an interesting question. I viewed the State Championship purely in terms of sweeping the other schools. But it would be interesting to look into the correlation between the Rose Bowl and who wins the round robin between the Cali schools. I'm sure the many Washington and Oregon Rose Bowl teams weaken any perceptible patterns, but maybe that just speaks to your question about tie-breakers. Overal conference record is an obvious possiblity for tiebreaker. But my guess is that record against Washington and Oregon is probably an even more probative tiebreaker for determining Rose Bowl viability.
Avinash
· 1 year ago
A possible tie breaker could be strength of victory. Cal manhandled UCLA and USC (although it was close for most of the game) dominated the 4th quarter against Cal. The only close finish of these games was USC-UCLA, so it shows that USC bared down and was in it until the very end. So you could say USC performed the best in the State Championship.
Of course these are all objective criteria, but it's worth noting. Great college teams don't lose decisively. USC has not lost a game by more than a touchdown since 2001.
All Comments
I think the 2006 season makes for an interesting case study. Cal, UCLA, and USC were all 2/3 in the "California series". So what criteria does one use for tie breakers? If we use head-to-head matchups, then we still end up with a tie. Cal, UCLA, and USC's one losses were to USC, Cal, and UCLA, respectively. Now consider conference standings. USC and Cal were tied at 7-2, still resulting in a tie. How about total standings? USC beats us out with an 11-2 record versus our 10-3 record, which aligns with their Rose Bowl berth that year.
Anyways, I think an interesting follow-up question to this post is how to determine tie-breakers for the "state championship". Is it possible to come up with a reasonable set of tie-breaker rules for the 2006 season which result in Cal winning state? What does everyone else think?
Like most years, I think this season's chances will come down to whether we can beat USC, and this season, I don't like those odds. Could it happen? Sure. But I wouldn't bet on Cal winning more than 8 games this year.
Cal manhandled UCLA and USC (although it was close for most of the game) dominated the 4th quarter against Cal. The only close finish of these games was USC-UCLA, so it shows that USC bared down and was in it until the very end. So you could say USC performed the best in the State Championship.
Of course these are all objective criteria, but it's worth noting. Great college teams don't lose decisively. USC has not lost a game by more than a touchdown since 2001.